Description: CMS provides ACOs with monthly claims data for members, including their medical visits and ACO program eligibility. This data can be divided into Membership and Claims tables through the ETL process. However, when calculating PMPY at specific levels of detail using these tables, issues arise due to unrelated dimensions, leading to inaccurate and understated results. This article presents a solution to this problem by utilizing Tableau's data blending capabilities.

Description: In preparing claims reserves in the annual statement, health insurers and their opining actuaries will generally include a provision for adverse deviation (PAD) in their reserved amount in order to satisfy language in both in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Health Annual Statement Instructions and in Actuarial Standards of Practice. This article explores the total level of PAD (both implicit and explicit margin combined) included in the reported claims reserves by examining NAIC filing data from 2016 through 2022.

Description: Two years ago, before COVID-19 changed everything about how we provide and receive health care, telehealth was largely provided by third-party vendors to treat a narrow range of acute one-and-done conditions. The value proposition was simple: a fast and easy member experience would drive satisfaction and engagement; high member satisfaction and engagement would drive health plan savings and member retention. Clearly, from the perspective of utilization, telehealth—as a viable alternative to in-person care during a pandemic—worked. And with COVID-19’s nudge—or was that a push?—toward cultural acceptance, the health care system is in a better position to capitalize on telehealth’s original promise of expanded access, lower cost and better outcomes than it was two years ago. But in the wake of the pandemic, it is just as clear to us that if telehealth is to live up to its full potential, some changes are needed. The rest of this article presents five ideas for improving the delivery of telehealth going forward.

Description: What can the United States learn from other countries' health care systems? How are other countries more efficient? We selected five countries that have been among those debated as having some of the most efficient health care systems to explore what the United States can learn from these examples.

Description: This article describes Medicare Supplement and short-term care products in more detail, and we compare their risk profiles. We explore the concept that these two products—when offered together—may provide a complementary hedge of certain policyholder behavior risks.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.

Description: This article attempts to make a modest contribution to the dialogue on the potential and risks associated with novel treatments such as cell & gene therapies. With a fast-expanding roster of what are believed to be one-time treatments at ever increasing price points aimed at curing a wider swatch of the population, they are as much a source of relief for patients stuck in medical limbo, as they are a source of anxiety for payers.

Description: On July 19, 2021, the Health Section and the Reinsurance Section of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) cohosted a webinar titled “Modeling the Financial Effects of Emerging Cancer Treatments,” which provided an overview of rapidly evolving cancer therapies, including cell therapies (CAR Ts), gene therapies and specialty drugs.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: This article is a concise guide to assist health actuaries with CPD attestation. It describes the requirements of United States Qualification Standards and the SOA Basic Requirement provisions of Section B. It also describes when each set of standards are appropriate.